The Modern Art of Rule

Bukele's Salvadoran Renaissance.

In 2019, 37-year-old Nayib Bukele secured the presidency of El Salvador. Swiftly implementing robust reforms, he propelled the country from having the highest murder rate globally to a level comparable to that of Luxembourg. While these measures garnered international attention, Bukele faced criticism from the global community, accusing him of "human rights abuses" and tagging him as a "soft dictator." Unsurprisingly, such allegations, coupled with effective reforms, endeared him to the E-Right, positioning him as a Millennial South American strongman.

Despite his success, there was a noticeable lack of discourse surrounding Bukele's background and the trajectory that led him to the presidency. With very few examples of contemporary successful right-wing populist movements, the question remained: Is Bukele indeed the right-wing populist he was portrayed as? If the answer is yes, then understanding the nuances of his ascent to power in El Salvador becomes imperative.

Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez has an interesting background, to say the least. Born into one of the richest families in El Salvador, he is the son of Arab immigrants. His paternal grandparents were Palestinian Christians, his maternal grandmother was Catholic, and his maternal grandfather was Greek Orthodox. His father, a Muslim convert and businessman, played various roles – from opening the country’s first McDonald’s franchise to running a textile company, building the first mosques in El Salvador, and owning a public relations firm. Additionally, he was a polygamist with six wives (Bukele has three brothers and seven half-siblings).

Bukele grew up in San Salvador as a privileged outsider. He attended a bilingual private school, where most of his classmates shared their families’ conservative political leanings. However, Bukele’s father was a man of the left and a supporter of the guerrilla forces, the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN), which, in the years following the El Salvadoran Civil War, became one of the country's two major political parties.

After high school, Bukele studied law at the Central American University but dropped out. From there, he managed a nightclub and ran a Yamaha dealership. Eventually, he found himself in the family business, holding director and president positions at Obermet, S.A. de C.V., his family’s public relations firm, whose key client was the FMLN.

Bukele had made inroads with the FMLN, but the party had little power. From 1989 to 2009, the Presidency and the Assembly were controlled by the Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (ARENA), a conservative party founded during the Salvadoran Civil War by Major Roberto D'Aubuisson. Over time, an accumulation of corruption scandals sank ARENA, and in 2009, this allowed the FMLN to gain power, which it held on to for the next decade.

It should be noted that the connection between a wealthy Palestinian-origin family and the FMLN (the leader of the Salvadoran Communist Party was also of that ethnic background) is best explained by their relation to the Salvadoran oligarchy. This oligarchy, largely an alliance between Criollo families claiming aristocracy and European and North American immigrants, never accepted Arab immigrants, regardless of their wealth and power. Considering this peripheral condition of Bukele and his family circle concerning the oligarchic elite is crucial to understanding his uneasy relationship with traditional power groups and, in essence, his appeal as an outsider, despite his upper-class background.

In 2011, Bukele launched a self-funded bid for mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán. He made his debut in politics as a young entrepreneur with a center-left profile, committed to improving the living conditions of the most vulnerable population through clinics, scholarships, and the construction of cultural and recreational spaces. Bukele ran on the FMLN ticket while downplaying his associations with the Party. His politics were leftist—progressive taxes, increased public spending—but he avoided the FMLN pronouncements about revolution. He also rejected the Party’s trademark colors of red and white, instead blanketing the streets with campaign materials that featured his name in white against a backdrop of light blue (colors he would later use for his new political party).

Bukele won the election by less than two percent and governed as if he were still campaigning. He erected a large stone sign with a white “N” engraved in a circle at the entrance to Nuevo Cuscatlán. He also opened a twenty-four-hour medical clinic, a library, and a community center. Each month, seniors (those over 55) received a free basket of food. Bukele even vowed to donate his entire salary to a new program funding grants for students to take classes in English and computer science. The town’s debt skyrocketed, but his popularity soon eclipsed that of the FMLN.

Seeing his potential, the FMLN encouraged Bukele to run for mayor of San Salvador, a position widely seen as a stepping stone to the Presidency. The FMLN leadership was confident that Bukele’s candidacy would grant them two or three more seats in Congress. The rebellious and unorthodox image of a young politician served the FMLN leadership well, as it seemed to counter growing objections among its base regarding a lack of transparency in the party and the stagnation of an aging clique of former guerrilla commanders.

Bukele won the mayoralty of San Salvador once again by a narrow margin. He quickly distanced himself from the FMLN during his campaign, relying instead on family members and old friends. One of them was Ernesto Castro, his chief secretary in Nuevo Cuscatlán, who now serves as the president of the National Assembly. Once in office, Bukele embarked on a series of ambitious projects to revitalize and enhance public spaces. The center of San Salvador had been visibly neglected and deteriorating, and Bukele's projects successfully revitalized the area. Employing the same strategy as before, he tackled major public works projects that benefited his base. Despite the growing debt, Bukele was content to address that issue later.

During his campaign and term as mayor, it became apparent that Bukele’s skills in marketing, coupled with his youth, were instrumental in his success. Through a sophisticated communication apparatus, he leveraged the untapped potential of social media, enabling him to publicize his administration and circumvent the increasingly hostile establishment media.

It wasn’t just the media that began to worry. As Bukele aspired to join the presidential ticket in 2019, he encountered a predictable barrier: opposition from the FMLN leadership. The party's experience with Funes, a candidate who had also come from outside its historical ranks, had been ambiguous. While Funes had secured victories, he proved difficult to control and undermined the party's prestige due to several corruption scandals, culminating in his seeking political asylum in Nicaragua. For the party leadership, it seemed safer to select a former guerrilla commander, the less charismatic historical leader of the People's Liberation Forces (FPL), Salvador Sánchez Cerén, who had retained control of the presidential seat in 2014.

Faced with this setback, Bukele demonstrated his exceptional ability to outmaneuver his opposition. The Salvadoran electoral law at the time introduced mechanisms to prevent "party switching," aiming to discourage the widespread practice of elected officials selling themselves to the highest bidder and betraying their constituents. Resigning from the party was not an option; he had to be expelled.

Bukele launched a series of vicious attacks against party leaders, including President Sánchez Cerén himself. He became hostile and combative, pushing back against the party at every opportunity. He finally forced the party to act after throwing an apple at a fellow party member during a Municipal Council session, prompting his enemies to initiate a disciplinary process.

The party overreached. A reprimand would have left him disqualified from competing for several years. However, the FMLN ethics committee, eager to destroy Bukele, decided to expel him. Expulsion meant Bukele could switch parties, freeing him to pursue the presidency. Bukele capitalized on the moment by utilizing social media to portray himself as the victim of a Stalinist purge and pave the way for his presidential candidacy. After overcoming various obstacles imposed by electoral authorities and jumping between more than two parties to ensure his candidacy, Bukele finally managed to register for the 2019 presidential elections.

Bukele’s presidential campaign began as a crusade against the FMLN. He took advantage of the groundwork laid by Funes's corruption scandals and presented the two main parties as part of a corrupted and unscrupulous political class responsible for the country's plight. "The same old faces" became his mantra, and he labeled “Arena and the FMLN the same.” Capitalizing on his popularity, he announced the formation of a new party, Nuevas Ideas.

Bukele's strategy to appeal to the people was to establish an equivalence with their counterparts. He positioned the people against the power of a bureaucratized and corrupt political class, presenting himself as the voice of the youth, a leader unburdened by the past. He labeled the FMLN as “ARENA 2.0,” clearly identifying the FMLN as the enemy, the old guard no longer suitable for a new electorate. His campaign focused on the youth, who actively engaged in social media, and were familiar with online vernacular.

Once he had discredited and stripped the FMLN of a considerable portion of its electoral base, Bukele redirected his attacks toward ARENA. Their presidential candidate, Carlos Calleja, son of the magnate owner of Selectos, the largest supermarket chain in the country, had the support of media power and financing from sponsors of the prominent right-wing party of the postwar regime, who anticipated the imminent return of one of their own to the presidential seat. Despite all this, Calleja was a rather weak candidate. Educated in the United States, with little experience in the political realm of El Salvador, and to make matters worse, he spoke Spanish with a slight but unmistakable American accent. He became the target of merciless satire by Bukele's media machine, which not only flooded social media with his messages but also deployed a significant army of bloggers, YouTubers, and Twitter posters.

Bukele's adept use of new technologies and social media to shape his image and convey his message, seamlessly intertwined, allowed him to overcome persistent attempts at sabotage from the mainstream media. Later, this approach would serve to justify his disinterest in political dialogue. Rather than subjecting his electoral proposals to public scrutiny, he chose to ignore them and frame them as unjust and biased.

Bukele demonstrated a keen understanding of the significant transformations in social communication within El Salvador. He meticulously crafted his image as the defender of the people against a bureaucratized and corrupt political class, positioning himself as the voice of the people against a discredited political power.

Despite concerns from political analysts about Bukele's supposedly weak territorial roots being a potential Achilles' heel, he proved them wrong. Territorial presence, in Bukele's case, was not about clichéd rituals and orchestrated audiences but rather the effective presence of his message among voters in even the most remote communities. Bukele achieved this by recognizing the decisive influence that a network of local organizations could have on voters. He implemented this influence through gestures of inclusion and visits to their places of residence.

Bukele's extensive tours abroad, more than within the country, were strategic. With an estimated 1.3 million Salvadoran immigrants in the U.S. eligible to vote in El Salvador’s presidential election, comprising about 20 percent of the total population in El Salvador (6.3 million), Bukele ensured to garner their support. This same strategy would play out across counties with heavy El Salvadoran populations.

Despite the Salvadoran political system's historical indifference to the political participation demands of the diaspora, Bukele's campaign understood the significant influence that migrants had on the electoral behavior of their relatives. Through a highly sophisticated mobilization strategy managed through social media and alternative communication channels, Bukele successfully harnessed the diaspora's support, yielding spectacularly favorable results across the entire national territory.

Bukele's victory was not merely a consequence of his ability to navigate the contemporary media landscape or his use of new communication technologies. It stemmed from a combination of these factors, complemented by a keen understanding of the political and social dynamics of El Salvador, an effective mobilization strategy that leveraged the diaspora, and a skillful communication approach that resonated with the electorate's aspirations and discontent with the established political order.

To comprehend the intentions of Bukele's political agenda, one must delve into the inauguration ceremony of June 1, 2019. The content of the inaugural speech merely served as a backdrop, with the true essence lying in the event itself. Several elements warrant attention to understand the spectacle: the carefully chosen venue, the ritualistic dismissal of the established political class, and the vow of unwavering loyalty to the leader.

The selection of the historic center as the venue revitalized during Bukele's mayoral term, aimed to underscore a shift towards the seemingly overlooked populace during the tenures of traditional parties. Opting for this location played to Bukele's advantage by capitalizing on the resistance and reluctance of the Assembly, where his allies remained a minority.

By staging the inauguration in a public space, the newly elected president could mobilize his supporters while exposing his adversaries, the outgoing leaders, and lawmakers, to the public's disapproval. This transformed the initial phase of the ceremony, as the former leaders entered, into a theatrical procession, a ritualistic ousting of the political class subjected to the scorn and insults of the audience.

The actual speech was surprisingly brief, lacking any semblance of a comprehensive government plan. It centered on a childhood anecdote where Bukele's father highlighted the country's injustices and the need for correction. The speech ended with the incoming president administering an oath of allegiance to the audience, urging them to accept the sacrifices necessary to fulfill the promises of a new nation. This moment, marked by joy and emotional intensity, portrayed an epiphany, symbolizing the installation of popular will in the persona of the president.

Bukele began his presidency by captivating voters with his charm, gradually removing checks on his power. He secured the support of the army and police through lavish benefits and methodically asserted control over all three branches of government. In 2020, when Congress refused to approve the hefty sums for his security plan, he marched into the chamber with soldiers, accusing lawmakers of thwarting the people’s desire for public safety. In 2021, his party secured a super-majority, allowing him to pass laws, such as reducing the number of seats in the legislature and restructuring municipalities, criticized as rule-tweaking to favor his party.

When El Salvador’s courts tried to restrain Bukele, he initially ignored them and then dismantled them. In 2020, the constitutional court ruled his assumed emergency powers during the pandemic illegal, but he wielded them anyway. Once he had a majority in Congress, he sidelined the judges of the constitutional court and the attorney-general investigating his ministers for embezzlement, replacing them with loyalists. He forcibly retired a third of the country’s judges and replaced them with loyalists too.

In a show of political savvy ahead of leaders of powerful countries, he implemented drastic measures like border closures and traveler confinements. He persuaded ARENA to declare a broad state of emergency, granting him immense powers to impose restrictions on freedom of movement, even overlooking the constitutional guarantee of the inviolability of the domicile. Beginning on March 21, 2021, Bukele imposed one of the most extensive lockdowns. The population was confined to their homes under the threat of penalties for disobedience. The lockdowns lacked a consistent health strategy for identifying and containing infections but instead wielded the repressive power of the police and military apparatus to impose the "sovereign" power of the president over his enemies.

The gang crackdown commenced in earnest in March 2022, triggered by a weekend with 87 reported murders following an apparent breakdown in the deal between gangs and the government. In response, Bukele declared a “state of exception,” granting the police authority to arrest anyone suspected of gang ties, even if the evidence was as minimal as a tattoo or an anonymous tip-off. Over 71,000 people, equivalent to 7% of male Salvadoreans aged 14-29, were rounded up and placed in overcrowded jails. While human rights groups expressed outrage, the majority of Salvadoreans were pleased with the decisive action.

Numerous individuals were charged with “illicit association,” a term that doesn't necessarily imply gang membership but could involve knowingly receiving a “direct or indirect benefit” by having relations “of any nature” with a gang. Bukele also increased the maximum sentence for “supporting” a gang from 9 to 45 years. Presently, El Salvador detains a higher percentage of its population than any other country.

Bukele's strategy included discarding due process as an essential component. Previously, when a gang member demanded protection money from a shop owner, the owner faced the choice of paying or risking death. Calling the police was futile, as testifying would lead to murder, and without testimony, there wouldn't be sufficient evidence for a conviction, but now those roles are reversed. Anyone could report a gang member and they would be locked up without question.

Bold measures for pandemic control, economic aid distribution, and portraying himself as a compassionate leader defending the health and life of the people against the greed of politicians and businessmen have propelled the president's popularity to unprecedented levels in Salvadoran democracy.

Contrary to expectations of an oligarchic restoration after a decade of FMLN rule, Bukele's movement skillfully invoked associations with both left and right while employing aggressive rhetoric against adversaries, undermining any chance of compromise. His government doesn't align with the old oligarchic right, nor is it neoliberal; instead, it adopts an anti-liberal stance.

Nayib Bukele's political trajectory from a scion of a wealthy family to the presidency of El Salvador is marked by a complex interplay of familial, socio-political, and strategic dynamics. Navigating a diverse cultural heritage, Bukele emerged as a political outsider, leveraging this status to resonate with a broader electorate. His rise involved astute manipulation of party politics, including a dramatic expulsion from the FMLN, ultimately leading to the formation of his party, Nuevas Ideas. As president, Bukele's governance has been characterized by a blend of populist rhetoric, unconventional strategies, and assertive actions, including a successful gang crackdown. His adept use of social media and technology, both as a campaign tool and a means of consolidating power, underscores a nuanced understanding of modern political dynamics. The intricate facets of Bukele's leadership highlight the multifaceted nature of contemporary politics, where charisma, communication, and controversial decisions converge in shaping the trajectory of a nation.

Bukele has recently been reelected to a second consecutive term something that was unconstitutional in El Salvador until he leveraged his legislative supermajority to consolidate control of the Constitutional Court which enabled his reelection. Time will tell whether Bukele’s reforms will last or if the ever-watching eye of liberal democracy will grant him a visit from a color revolution. Regardless there is much the right can learn from the rise of Bukele.

-TJS