Catabolic Opportunity

Dear reader, I am just as tired of the endless stream of theories as I’m sure you are. I have done my best over the last year to turn my focus on pragmatic real-world solutions. Yet, I ask that you bear with me as I add yet another theory to your plate. But trust me in the wake of this theory opportunity lies.

A few years back, the theory of Catabolic Collapse was garnering attention as a lens through which to understand the dynamics of societal decline. The theory originated from John Michael Greer’s essay How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse. Greer’s theory posits that civilizations face the risk of gradual disintegration due to the compounding effects of resource depletion, diminishing returns on investments, and societal complexities. In essence it is the gradual degradation of a civilization due to rising maintenance cost.

It's like when a company keeps investing in new projects, but they don't bring in as much profit as before. Over time, the company starts using up its resources faster than it can replenish them. To cope, it has to cut costs by reducing services or laying off employees. This downward spiral weakens the company's ability to function, leading to further declines until it can't sustain itself anymore. Similarly, catabolic collapse suggests that civilizations face a similar fate when they can't maintain their complex systems and infrastructure due to resource scarcity and diminishing returns on their efforts. This can lead to societal breakdowns and eventual collapse if the challenges aren't addressed effectively.

These "catabolic processes," wherein societies cannibalize their existing infrastructure and institutions to sustain themselves in the face of declining resources, can be seen in America today. The aging infrastructure, economic inequality, environmental degradation, inefficient healthcare system, and political polarization collectively reflect the strains of sustaining complex systems with limited resources.

Greer’s collapse is a bit hyperbolic and is best described as an explanation of social decline. Catabolic Collapse is a stair-step model wherein catastrophic events are followed by periods of stabilization. These stable periods last until the resources acquired from catabolizing run out and the process repeats. As overplayed as the example of the collapse of the Roman Empire is, it is especially prescient here. Rome did not collapse into a Mad Max-style free-for-all; rather, its sphere of influence slowly waned as those on the fringes realized the Empire's reach no longer extended to them.

It’s this receding tide of influence that is most interesting to us. If Greer’s theory holds true, then we can expect to see the American Empire step back as it can no longer afford to maintain control of its vassals. Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s (la'anatu 'llahi 'alay-hi) recent challenge of federal immigration policy seems to be a sign of just this. Although nothing substantial materialized out of Abbott’s challenge, the fact that the federal government did nothing speaks volumes. Thirty years ago, they burned Waco to the ground; today, they allowed a challenge to their authority to go nearly unopposed.

For us, this presents a powerful opportunity. Much has been said about the merits of local political action, and that option has never looked better than it does now. Local political victories today have the potential to become exponentially powerful. As the federal government continues to cede power to the states, local municipalities will become increasingly influential. As the finance bros say, “buy low, sell high.”

I expect we will see the federal government relinquishing control and states asserting greater autonomy with ever-increasing frequency. This certainly guarantees that local political action will become increasingly influential. With this shift in power dynamics, opportunities for impactful change burgeon at the grassroots level. Now is the time to recognize the potential of local victories, as municipalities rise in prominence and wield greater authority. As catabolic collapse continues to chip away at federal power, positions of authority will be ours for the taking—you just have to get off the couch and do something.

-TJS